Analysis of the most affected countries in South America

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Ecuador

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $38,103$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(3.62 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,032.2}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(36,032.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,275$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(105 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,847.4}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 57.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,847.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,403$ on 2020-05-27

Peru

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $135,905$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181,060.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 64.2)}}\) (asimptote \(181,060.9\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,983$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(106 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,433.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 58.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,433.7\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $75,753$ on 2020-05-27

Brazil

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $411,821$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(5.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{995,923.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 76.5)}}\) (asimptote \(995,923.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $25,598$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(575 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,265.8}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 62.3)}}\) (asimptote \(42,265.8\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $219,576$ on 2020-05-27

Chile

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $82,289$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(791 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)

Dead

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $841$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(25 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)

Active

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $47,908$ on 2020-05-27

Bolivia

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,768$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(65.5 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,127.7}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 85.3)}}\) (asimptote \(30,127.7\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $280$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(10.8 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{854.4}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 69.3)}}\) (asimptote \(854.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,799$ on 2020-05-27

Colombia

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,104$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(667 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{64,986.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 82.1)}}\) (asimptote \(64,986.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $803$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(59.5 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,055.6}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 49.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,055.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,190$ on 2020-05-27

Argentina

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,933$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(548 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)

Dead

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $500$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(48.3 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{618.4}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 47.5)}}\) (asimptote \(618.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,084$ on 2020-05-27

Uruguay

Population $3,473,730$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $803$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(231 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{751.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 24.7)}}\) (asimptote \(751.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $22$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(5.69 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21.8}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 23.7)}}\) (asimptote \(21.8\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $131$ on 2020-05-27

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Paraguay recovered 18%

Paraguay

Population $7,132,538$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $884$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(50.8 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,133.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 54.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,133.7\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(3.81 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11.0}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 20.6)}}\) (asimptote \(11.0\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $481$ on 2020-05-27